Before and after the New Year, you should read a lot of “Top Ten XX Predictions in 2021”, of course, there are also predictions about technology trends.

However, after reading a lot, I found that these predictions generally have some problems. For example, the forecasts of scientific research institutions and groups are basically concentrated in the academic field. But even if these trends come true, the public or even those in the industry will not feel it. And the predictions released by technology companies, the basic logic is what I will focus on in 2021, what is the main trend. Of course, this is understandable, but it is ultimately biased.

Therefore, we want to provide you with some relatively reliable technology trend forecasts that can bring some real help from various angles. For example, if you are investing, looking for a job, or simply paying attention to the technology situation, you can find a little inspiration from it.

Therefore, this forecast is not very rigorous in style, and various trends are mixed up a bit. These include not only technological trends, but also business and application trends. In addition, it is also a trend in our view that something is impossible, and what will happen after something is possible.

Well, without further ado, check out this slightly late New Year’s gift. If there is any mistake, I will make another prediction next year to compensate you…

　　1. Cloud native can still be popular for a few months

Friends who are concerned about cloud computing will find that cloud native has suddenly become popular in the past few months, and it seems that it has become a new outlet for cloud computing manufacturers to “group and attack”. However, in fact, cloud native is a concept that has been discussed for many years. It is not a specific technology, but a series of specific technologies and products built around the application logic of cloud computing.

The popularity of cloud native this time is not because a new cloud native product suddenly became popular, but on the one hand, it is true that new cloud computing users need to transition to cloud native. For example, real economy enterprises that need to build 5G private networks and built-in AI systems have completely different needs from the cloud-native needs of Internet and software companies.

On the other hand, cloud computing itself, as a carrier technology, has limited upgrade capability. In the high-density competition, enterprises themselves also need to create some new market hot spots.

To sum up, there is indeed a market demand for cloud native at this stage, but there are also considerations that companies lack other differentiated competition points. From this point of view, the popularity of cloud native can continue for a while in 2021. However, if cloud native really wants to explode, it still needs a certain technology or product under this system to suddenly become the rigid demand of B-end users, rather than cloud native itself as a trend or logic to explain to customers.

Breaking out or going silent after a few months, this is a key bonus question left for cloud computing players at the beginning of the new year.

　2. Don’t count on quantum computing this year

In 2020, from national to local, from scientific research institutions to major technology companies, no one is not talking about quantum computing. In the general direction, countries in China, the United States, and Europe are including quantum computing in their strategic lists and increasing investment. From a small perspective, there are more and more platforms and applications for quantum computing, and we can hear good news about quantum computing every other day.

However, it must be admitted that a large part of the attention of the media and the public to quantum computing comes from concerns about the “stuck neck” of key technologies since the Sino-US technological friction. This pressure forces us to pay attention to and expect quantum computing to explode immediately, and then we will surpass the other side of the ocean in one fell swoop, ushering in a new era of computing.

It is true that quantum computing itself is promising and progressing faster than expected, but it is a long-term technology. The short-term application conditions and application adaptability are completely incomparable with classical computing. In the long run, quantum computing must first solve small problems such as communication encryption, and then step by step to the “quantum victory” of comprehensiveness and versatility.

So, ask yourself how much our expectations and beliefs about quantum computing are subjective. In fact, to be honest, quantum is not in a hurry, and China is not in a hurry.

　3. There will be fewer and fewer AI-based innovations

In 2019, many people insisted on advocating the “AI Winter Theory”. The argument was that there was too little innovation in AI basic research that year. Look at it again in 2020, directly a good guy. It seems that no one can beat it except GPT-3. DeepMind is still studying the profound propositions of the brain and life. Does this accelerate the demonstration that the AI ​​winter is about to be discovered?

If I make a subjective assumption, AI basic research in 2021 should be “worse”, and the kind of AI algorithm innovation that can make headlines in all technology media is likely to be absent. But this is not to say that AI should be cool, but it is showing the true vitality of AI. In fact, when AI algorithms can make headlines, it is also when there is really little news in the industry. The algorithm innovations, product innovations, and tool upgrades that various companies can launch today are actually quite a bit, but they are scattered in various companies and directly affect the market.

For example, I predict that domestic algorithms that are close to or even surpass the capabilities of GPT-3 will appear soon. But people probably didn’t know it at the time, because no one wrote the headline “Will GPT-3 destroy the world?”

When everyone was paying attention to the machine exposition, industrialization had not really begun; after industrialization began, everyone was busy making money, and no one went to the exposition.

4. The value of AI will increase, but the name will “disappear”

Then talk about AI. In fact, judging from the signs of maturity of various technologies, 2021 will be a big year for the integration of AI and industry.

More intelligent applications and platforms will be implemented, and the influence of AI will be quietly embedded in more industries. The so-called AI industrialization + industrial AI will be accelerated in 2021.

But in this process, we may not see the name of AI. It’s like the success of the 4G network, which brought the rise of the mobile Internet. But no mobile phone manufacturer or APP developer will advertise that I use 4G network. The way for AI to truly activate industrial value is to integrate into the industry and become a highly available basic technology and infrastructure. In the critical cycle of 2021, we will most likely see more industrial intelligence solutions with their own names and their own labels, instead of discussing the basic logic, feasibility and broad prospects of industry + AI. Wait.

Only when the value of AI does not need to be discussed will AI really start to have value.

　5. The “Internet of Things renaissance” is a weather vane

5G, cloud computing, AI, these new technologies have collectively matured in the current cycle, which is the most critical technological variable in this decade. However, 5G provides a network environment, and AI provides software algorithms. Ultimately, this new set of technological values ​​requires a landing plan. At present, the Internet of Things is the best release port.

It should be noted here that the Internet of Things has gone through various stages of development, with different network connection methods and tasks that can be carried. Just as Minesweeper and Cyberpunk 2077 are both games, there isn’t a very consistent comparability between IoT devices.

What we are looking forward to at this stage is a new IoT technology and corresponding solutions that can adapt to 5G, cloud, and AI features. The arrival of this IoT capability will open up a critical period of opportunity for the complete release of AI capabilities to the industry. Of course, this big change won’t necessarily come in 2021, and it may take a little longer to wait. But here is a wind vane for everyone to guess before the arrival of the change: all of a sudden, big factories are starting to poach innovations related to the Internet of Things, no longer mentioning words such as Industrial Internet, Industrial Internet, AIoT, but come up with names. Brand new, something new with similar content. If this happens in 2021, then whether you want to start a business, invest, buy stocks or look for a job, you should start paying attention – the “renaissance” of the Internet of Things must be the beginning of great changes.

May we all be ducks before the plumbing of the Spring River.

　6. “Smart city” projects will explode

Where to B collect the money, the smart city will tell you. After IT companies, cloud computing manufacturers, and Internet companies have been transformed into B companies, new pressures have begun to emerge, that is, after long-term construction of ecology and layout of cases, where to collect money?

In contrast, the complex To B market also has various levels. Among them, the projects that can meet the revenue needs the fastest are smart city-related projects. Of course, the smart city projects emerging in 2021 will no longer be the data visualization projects of a few years ago, but more emphasis on AI-centered smart city projects, and will extend vertically to transportation projects, high-speed renovations, airport renovations, urban In specific projects such as big data centers and urban AI centers.

Smart cities will undergo very profound changes, and by 2022, I believe you will see this in a lot of media.

7. The commercial use of 5G private network is really powerful.

but you may not see

Compared with the heroic traffic in the to C market, the mainstream propaganda in the to G market, it is the to B market that really makes a fortune. In 2021, the changes brought by a new generation of technology to the to B market will still not be subversive. However, in the entire to B field, the 5G private network promoted by operators may be the first to become popular. Compared with the complex and differentiated requirements of enterprise IT technology, the 5G private network can bring value to specific industries with a high degree of standardization and a mature cost and feedback model.

Judging from the current situation, the 5G private network will take the lead in several key industries such as power, coal, and terminals.

But after all, to B is more conservative and cautious, and the value brought by the 5G private network may not make the C-end feel much in 2021. But it will take a few years to sigh, oh, it’s so amazing.

Of course, 5G to B still cannot solve the problem of 5G investment, but can only be an extension of network value. In 2021 of 5G, there are still many challenges.

　8. 5G begins to face the C-side problem,

Opportunities for cloud VR and cloud games

The challenge that still exists in 5G is that the C-end does not feel obvious. At present, China has the most 5G base stations, 5G mobile phones and 5G users, but there is still no mature and iterative 5G application trend. In 2021, the mobile phone market will inevitably have many waves, and the homogenization competition will be relatively fierce. According to this logic, 5G-oriented mobile phone innovation is unlikely to become the mainstream in 2021.

One side is the ready network, and the other side is the mobile phone that you are waiting for. How to reconcile the two?

The answer is uncertain, of course, but 2021 almost has to have some answers. Therefore, there is a high probability that two things, cloud game consoles and cloud VR devices, will suddenly become popular. Although the experience may be average, the ecological adaptation is not good. But as long as a cloud game or cloud VR is popular, it cannot stop the imagination of the entire 5G to C from exploding.

Thinking about the VR outlet in 2017, who said that you have to have everything ready to get out of the circle? A gust of east wind is enough.

　　9. The chip will be very lively,

But by no means new materials and 7nm

2020 is a standard year for semiconductors. The highly favorable national policies, the enthusiasm of the stock market and investors, and the fact that many independent solutions of the semiconductor industry are indeed advancing solidly, may cause trouble for Wang Zheng, who is on the other side of the ocean. Of course, not necessarily. After all, I know Wang has no Twitter now, and it is hard to say whether the White House briefing will be shown to him.

Under this trend, in 2021, there is no reason for the shareholder wind of semiconductors to blow back. But we must pay attention to what many marketing accounts have come out with “achieving 7nm within the year”, “the new material curve overtaking the United States is dumbfounded” Ah, it’s really good to see it, it’s better not to see it.

The semiconductor game is the double pinnacle of human industry and commerce. If you can overtake in a corner, it will already be overtaken. In 2021, there is a high probability that the ecology of domestic chips will be accelerated and improved, more manufacturing projects will be implemented or even started, and even after the fine-tuning of the international situation, more promising international semiconductor cooperation projects will land in China in a flexible and wonderful way.

If you are a student who is interested in semiconductors, then go after this dream in 2021. There is nothing wrong with the old iron. If you are a software developer or a related practitioner, 2021 is an excellent time to rediscover software opportunities based on the chip ecosystem.

Regarding the chip, the attitude should always be, hold on, we can…

　10. Internet companies “do their duty”

You may not believe it when you say it. In 2021, Internet giants may not dare to sell vegetables.

And there is a question, what do Internet companies sell? In fact, Yangguan Avenue has long been pointed out that Internet companies, as the backbone of China’s technology, still have to go to pure technological innovation.

Then the problem comes again. Many papers have been published, and many patent applications have been filed. After all, this thing will not become a flow of funds. So we may see three more “duty” trends in Internet companies in 2021:

1. Release low-tech hardware such as wearable devices, headphones, speakers, and even tablets, and compete with mobile phone manufacturers in multi-scenario devices.

2. Cooperate with emerging new energy vehicles and try to recover the money earned or unearned from traditional car companies in new energy. Or through the way of group CP to close a round of stock prices.

3. Continue to think of new things based on public cloud and AI, and integrate more closely with new infrastructure. The 2016-2017 model that focuses on underlying technological innovation may return.

Well, those are the ten most likely tech trends in our eyes for 2021. The technology industry is facing a new situation in which multiple technologies, multiple trends, and multiple pressures are cooperating. But looking back, could it be more difficult than in 2020? In fact, in 2020, the development of digitization and intelligence will not be stretched at all, but will quickly become the backbone of the fight against the epidemic, condensing the development consensus of various industries.

Tourists who rarely go out will complain about the weather; for travelers, wind and rain are also scenery. In 2021, we encourage each other.